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Forecasting traffic for the A21 Piacenza-Brescia concession bid

SIAS Group

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In 2012, Italian Road Agency ANAS, launched the bid to operate and maintain 88km of existing toll roads between the cities of Piacenza, Cremona and Brescia. In May 2015, a consortium led by Italian motorway operator SATAP was appointed by the Italian Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport (MIT) as the concessionaire which will operate and maintain the existing Piacenza-Cremona-Brescia stretch for the next 30 years. The consortium, where SATAP (the main asset of the SIAS motorway group) has a 70% stake, whilst construction group Itinera owns the other 30%, will also expand the highway by building and managing an additional connecting road.

Our role

Steer Davies Gleave is acting as traffic advisor for all the motorway networks operated by the SIAS group. We supported SATAP on the A21 tender for all the traffic and tolling aspects. We also supported the Client in forecasting long-term traffic levels for the A21 Piacenza-Brescia over the next 30 years. After the analysis of the current motorway network, we provided a socio-economic overview of the study area in order to understand the main characteristics of the A21 motorway and its traffic. 

How we did it

Using available and collected traffic data both on motorways and on ordinary roads, a detailed reconstruction of the existing traffic volumes has been done. Then, a traffic forecast has been developed by using: 

  • An econometric model, to estimate the traffic demand growth during the Concession period as a function of the expected evolution of the main socio-economic variables;
  • and a network model, to assess the impact of the future network changes on the motorway’s potential traffic.

Our role has been also to support the Client on developing the breakdown of eligible costs by class of vehicle and the modulation of toll rates based on Euro categories according with the Directive 1999/62/CE (Directive Eurovignette).

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